Marshmallow Test

Stanford preschool delay studies; a 2018 conceptual replication with 900 children attenuated its predictive power.

Specifications & Metrics

type

Developmental

year

1972

lead

Walter Mischel

replication

Attenuated — controls for family background sharply reduce prediction (Watts, Duncan & Quan 2018)

Core Principles & Analysis

• Preschoolers at Stanford's Bing Nursery chose one treat now or two if they waited alone, many singing and covering their eyes to hold out.
• Watts, Duncan, and Quan's 2018 replication with about 900 children found delay ability barely predicted later outcomes after family controls.
• The pair of results is a textbook case of a famous effect shrinking under stronger controls.

Sources

• Wikipedia: Stanford marshmallow experiment