Bayes' Theorem

How to update a probability on evidence: the exact rule relating prior beliefs, likelihoods and posteriors.

Specifications & Metrics

proved

Thomas Bayes, published 1763 (posthumously)

Core Principles & Analysis

• Bayes' essay was edited for publication by Richard Price after his death.
• It runs statistics as inverse probability: from observed effects back to likely causes.
• Spam filters, medical test interpretation and forensic reasoning are all Bayes in application.